Evaluate, Enable, Engage: Principles to Support Effective Decision Making in Mass Transit Investment Programs

Between 2000 and 2030, developing countries are expected to build more urban area than has been built throughout human history (World Bank 2010). Urban populations in China and India will grow by at least 600 million residents by 2030, roughly twice the current population of the entire United States (Dobbs 2010). Without major mobility investments, many rapidly growing cities will face traffic and economic gridlock. In India, for instance, sharp and sustained increases in private vehicle ownership and demand for mobility over the last few decades already threaten economic productivity in urban areas, which account for approximately 65 percent of gross domestic product (Agarwal and Zimmerman 2008, Ministry of Urban Development [MoUD] 2005a).

Against a backdrop of increasing urban mobility demands and growing concerns about the impacts of climate change, more national governments are investing in the development of urban and metropolitan mass transit systems. Within the last 10 years, national governments in several populous countries with quickly growing economies, including India, Mexico, and Brazil, have introduced programs to fund at least a portion of the construction costs of new mass transit systems. They join countries with more mature transport infrastructure, including France, the United Kingdom and the United States, that have continued and, in some cases increased their investments in mass transit.

Given high demand and limited resources, the structure of the national programs that fund mass transit investments is important. Programs must prioritize effective, deliverable projects that support accessibility and urban development goals and that perform strongly against alternative strategies to meet these goals. Programs also need to foster buy-in from the local governments that will operate the projects. Ultimately, decisions about which projects to support are political, not technical; so the role of programs should be to equip decision makers with clear, complete information about the projects’ merits.

This report examines 13 existing national mass transit investment programs from the perspective of informed decision making. Although the political, financial, and institutional contexts differ across the programs, the concepts involved in measuring the rationale and deliverability of proposed projects are broadly similar. Therefore, this report highlights how the reviewed programs address the concepts, with a particular focus on practices that are likely to yield information critical to effective decision making. The insights will be of use to administrators of national mass transit investment programs that are identifying areas for improvement, national governments that are introducing new programs, and representatives of multilateral institutions that are helping to structure such programs.