Low-carbon and sustainable transport in Qingdao: A strategic study
Urbanization has been rapid for the coastal city of Qingdao in China’s eastern Shandong Province. By 2020, the city will have a population of 12 million people. Working with Qingdao Municipal Government, WRI China/EMBARQ China assessed Qingdao’s current measures to pursue low-carbon transport in four inter-connected areas: transport policy, institutional structure, finance and perception and awareness. This working paper includes 5 recommendations to help Qingdao achieve the sustainable development of its transportation sector.
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Executive Summary
Urbanization has been rapid for the coastal city of Qingdao in China’s eastern Shandong Province. The Qingdao Municipal Government has set ambitious goals to reduce carbon emission intensity by 45% by 2020 from 2005. Both the 12th Five-Year Plan and Qingdao’s Urban Master Plan portray a drastic transformation that the city will be undergoing: by 2020, the city will have a population of 12 million people, compared to 8.7 million in 2012, and two new urban centers will be created to accommodate the future growth. Rapid economic growth, urbanization, and motorization will fuel a growth in negative externalities associated with urban transport.
- By 2010, the average speed of travel had sunk from 29.7 in 2002 to just 21.7 km/h. Severe traffic congestion was causing annual losses of 1.8 billion CNY (or 3% of the city’s GDP). Meanwhile, CO2 emissions from the transport sector made up about 21% of the city’s overall CO2 emissions.
- By 2020, the city's travel demand will have risen from 4.7 million person trips per day in 2010 to 9.4 million. Total daily vehicle kilometers traveled will increase from 29.4 million km in 2010 to 90 million km. The mode share of private vehicles will rise to 40% if no intervention measures are taken. By 2020, transport-related CO2 emissions will make up at least 29% of total emissions, becoming the fastest growing source of emissions. This will make it increasingly difficult for Qingdao to meet its sustainable and low-carbon goals.
Existing problems and those that will arise in the future will pose challenges to Qingdao. How can it strike a balance between economic development and sustainable development?
执行摘要
青岛市发展低碳和可持续交通的背景和意义
近年来，青岛在经济高速发展和城镇化、机动化加快推进的综合影响下，城市交通得到了长足发展，然而交通相关的负外部性也不断呈现，温室气体排放、交通拥堵、环境污染、能源消耗、资源紧缺、交通事故等问题日益突出，给青岛市宜居城市建设、居民生活和生产活动造成严重影响。
远期，一旦城市宏观布局和个体居民出行锁定在高排放、不可持续的模式上，不仅可能超出城市资源环境的承载力，而且，届时再解决问题将会付出更高的经济、环境成本。随着城市人口的迅速增加和城市规模的不断扩大，青岛市城市交通发展正呈现出私人小汽车为主导的高排放的模式。如果不对小汽车加以限制，至2020年，小汽车出行比例将达到40%，比2002年增加335万人次/日。不仅城市道路交通拥堵状况将不断加剧，交通排放也将进一步增加，势必成为青岛市建设低碳和可持续的城市目标的重要障碍。
根据《青岛市国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》，未来5年至10年不仅是青岛城市的快速发展期，也是城市的重要转型期，是实现青岛市经济社会全面、协调、可持续发展的关键时期。由于城市交通是城市功能正常运转的基础和“血脉”，是促进城市经济社会发展和提升城市综合竞争力的核心要素，青岛市也明确了打造宜居、可持续和低碳的城市，力求发展可持续的城市交通系统。
低碳和可持续交通系统在概念内涵上指城市交通发展的最终目标。这一目标包含以下三个效益（见图0-1）：经济效益，即缓解交通拥堵，促进地区的商业发展；环境效益，减少能源消耗和温室气体排放；社会效益，为城市中低层收入者提供平等、高效的出行机会，降低出行的费用和提高出行安全。
此外，实现低碳和可持续交通的意义还在于：首先，低碳、可持续的城市交通系统发展也与中央提出的公共交通优先发展战略，以及城市交通以人的移动而非车的移动为服务导向的理念相一致，更有助于推动“资源节约和环境友好型”社会建设，体现“以人为本”的核心价值，增加城市交通的安全性，实现高质量的生活品质。其次，低碳、可持续的城市交通系统发展也帮助城市避免未来更大的投入，提高城市生产和生活的效率，提升城市在国际、国内的竞争力，为争低碳气候融资奠定基础。